Tip Jar

Thanks for the analysis and the visuals. Contrary to what some folks may think, it is not going to be a cake walk in the GE. That is why it is important for this primary to be played out fully so that no one feels that they lost because of gamesmanship.

If the candidate who loses supporters feel cheated it will be a long, uncertain GE campaign.

Good visuals, but I'd point out that the swing states of old are not the swing states of new. Virginia is definitely in play this year, for instance. We elected Senator Webb and Governor Kaine; and we could easily go back blue for the first time in thirty years, especially if Obama is the candidate. He is very popular here.

New Hampshire is in play; Nevada is with Obama, Arkansas is with Clinton, as you've noted. Nebraska could yield a few electoral votes from it's new split-electoral vote system. We'll have to see if we can buck a generation's worth of tradition this year; if there's a year to do it, it's this year

Close elections are very rare. Two in a row was extraordinary. So I can't see another close election, especially not in a change year, with a black man or a woman at the top of the Democratic ticket, and a failed war and a failing economy as the Repub record. The emotions and the issues are heavyweight and potentially explosive and so the campaign will likely end in a landslide. In which case all of the purple swing states on your map will go to the winner, along with some of the red or blue ones.

As I said, close elections are rare:

Electoral votes
'96   379/159
'92   370/168
'88   426/111
'84   525/13
'80   489/49
'76   297/240   Carter/Ford was close
'72   520/17
'68   301/191
'64   586/52
'60   303/219   Kennedy/Nixon was close
'56   457/73
'52   442/89
'48   303/189/12  
Truman/Dewey/Thurmond-Dixiecrat was much closer than the EVs make it appear

MT should be a swing state, Bill won it 2x.
Iowa is swing as Bush won it 1x
Georgia is swing Bill won it 1x

Otherwise interesting, though some states that are blue are swing this year (MI, PA, for Obama)
(WA, OR, WI, IA for Clinton)

Let me hasten to add that your analysis is excellent and your map work too. Note that the swing states are clustered, and they tend to swing in clusters of neighboring or similar states, too.

One region is the target of the Southwest Strategy. The caucus in Nevada, and the convention in Colorado were both important moves to tip these swing states.

Obviously the largest cluster is moderate Southern and border states, FL, LA, AR, MO, TN, WVa, and if you can add KY, I'll add VA and NC.

Another overlapping cluster is in the Midwest, with OH, MO, and maybe WVa, perhaps adding in IA and WI as you suggest. And the Repubs always claim to see a chance to take MI and PA. This  heartland was always an area where Repubs were competitive. G.H.W. Bush took Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, and Missouri when beating Dukakis. Ford took Michigan and Illinois while losing to Carter. In '60, Nixon carried Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa.

So we can expect several states to break one way or another together.

Hidden within these regions are the bellwether states. No Repub has ever won the Presidency without carrying Ohio, and Missouri has always voted for the winner (with one peculiar exception.)

So I'll be focusing on the two most determinative swing state. If it looks like we will carry Ohio and Missouri, I expect us to win in a landslide. Otherwise, we will lose in a landslide.

"Now, I admire Howard Dean for his Fifty State Strategy; however, if Massachusetts is close on election night we had better all pack our bags for Canada."

...that's a good one and TRUE.

Washington is very close. Their last governor race was decided by like 100 votes. Did you analyze margins of victory when you did this or just looked at who won in the last 4 cycles? Might be an interesting thing to look at margins to see if there is some pattern of movement one way or the other.

You know what is damned odd looking at this map?

Indiana.

It's surrounding by blue and purple and yet it remains stubbornly red. I can't explain it and I am from the there. Well, yes, I suppose I can. Indiana is much like Ohio only with a lot less urban centers and AA population. I.e. it's like southern Ohio only more so.

Still...I'd be interested in data on which way it is  trending. I harbor no illusions on it going blue any time soon, and I know most every where is trending blue these days. Part of that is just the cyclical nature of power, but perhaps part of that , if true, may be due to a longer term trend?